Theory Suggests Donald Trump Poll Numbers Are Understated
Apparently, the theory is known as the “Bradley effect,” named after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, a Black man, who, based on exit polls, had a sizeable lead and was projected to win California’s 1982 gubernatorial race against George Deukmejian, but ultimately lost.
Now a tech company is saying the same thing is happening with Donald Trump and his poll numbers.
According to Business Insider:
The study examined a mystery that has confounded polling analysts over the past few months: Why does Trump perform better in online-based surveys than polls that include live-telephone interviews?
The study posited that voters, when interviewed by pollsters via telephone, are reluctant to admit their support for a controversial candidate whose critics have painted him as racist. In self-administered online interviews, on the other hand, they will be more likely to admit their support. And that will more likely reflect their eventual decision in the privacy of a voting booth.
“Much work remains to better understand which types of polls are actually right in predicting Trump’s support levels, but a key implication of the study is that many national polls may be underestimating Trump’s support levels,” the study concluded.
If true, the results could indicate that Trump’s support in polls, which has risen to new heights over the past few weeks, is actually understated. Trump has climbed as high as 41% in a recent Monmouth survey of national Republican primary voters. On average, he has a 17-point lead over his closest Republican contender, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).
Overall, the study found that Trump performs about six percentage points better in online surveys compared with those conducted by phone. In a sample of nearly 3,000 Republican voters, the Morning Consult study found that Trump garnered 38% support with online respondents, 36% with respondents who were robo-called, and 32% among live-interviewed voters.
We’re so f**ked.